Consumption Expected to Prop Up Bumper Q3 GDP

Ahead of this Thursday's advance Q3 GDP release, sell-side broadly see the consumer solidly supporting growth across the quarter, drawing further from excess savings to do so. There are a handful of out-of-consensus calls (Danske at the lower-end, RBC at the upper-end), but most look for growth to weaken into year-end and through 2024:

• Bank of America expect growth to come in at 4.5%, with consumer spending increasing by 4.0% in 3Q. Strength in 3Q GDP is likely to be broad and not attributable to special factors, meaning the economy is beating expectations. By a long way.
• Citi see a "very strong" 4.7% figure, with consumption the strongest element of Q3 activity. They also expect a solid increase in most components of business equipment investment, while core PCE inflation should rise at the softest rate since 2020, but still above-target 2.5%.
• Danske Bank look for a below-consensus 3.3% q/q AR reading, and still foresee weakening towards the winter not least amid tightening financial conditions, and think the Fed is done with hiking rates.
• RBC flag the importance of this week’s advance US GDP release, for which they expect an above-consensus +5.0% read (consensus: 4.3%). They write that consumption will be the primary driver of growth this quarter, with the drawdown of excess savings countering normalizing incomes.
• Scotiabank write that the US economy is likely to continue to grow much faster than the non-inflationary speed limit, with consumer spending expected to figure prominently as a key driver ahead of the holiday shopping season.
• SEB see GDP growth accelerating to well above trend, citing the Atlanta Fed GDP Now indicating a +5.4% read. They expect to upwardly revise their 2023 GDP estimate of 2.0% but continue to see a slowdown in Q4 and during the first half of next year.
• TD Economics write that September consumer spending data could give a more important look at momentum into Q4 relative to the Q3 growth figure, and write that a moderation in both metrics would be welcome news for the Fed. They still expect one last hike, but recent tightening in financial conditions makes it a close call.