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Continued ISM Mfg Downside From Regional Fed Surveys

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed mfg index surprisingly improved in November, from -19.4 to -14.4 (cons -22.0), as it rounded out a collection of mixed Regional Fed surveys for the month.
  • The five regional surveys continue to point to a more meaningfully sub-50 ISM mfg reading (released Dec 1, consensus sees 49.8 down from 50.2), as has been the case in recent months although also joined by last week’s surprise fall in the manufacturing PMI.
  • Coming ahead of the ISM, the MNI Chicago PMI on Nov 30 gives a final steer having better predicted recent ISM outturns.
  • Back to the Dallas Fed survey, price components were more favourable. Raw materials prices at 22.6 (-9pts) fell below its series average for the first time in more than two years although finished goods prices at 13.9 (-8pts) were still slightly above the series average.

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