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Continued Softening In Core Inflation Pressures

SPAIN DATA

Spanish core inflation continued to trend lower in the December flash release, with core CPI at +3.8% Y/Y (vs +4.5% prior). The headline prints for HICP and CPI were a touch lower-than-expected but shouldn't result in meaningful changes to the consensus estimate for the Eurozone CPI readings for December (flash data released next Friday).

  • Headline CPI came in below consensus at +3.1% Y/Y (vs +3.2% prior and cons) and 0.0% M/M (vs +0.2% cons, -0.3% prior). HICP was +3.3% (+vs 3.3% prior and cons) and 0.0% M/M (vs +0.1% cons, -0.5% prior).
  • Spain makes up 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket.
  • The press release notes that food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation softened on a Y/Y basis, as prices remained stable on the month after rising in December 2022.
  • While electricity prices rose on the month, the increase was less than in December last year. Fuel prices were highlighted as an upside driver for the Y/Y rate.
  • Spanish core inflation excludes energy and unprocessed foods.
  • Looking ahead to 2024, the Spanish Government have announced that VAT on certain food products will remain at 0% through June 2024, which should help ease upside risks to headline inflation in the coming months.

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