US DATA
The jobless claims data showed a surprise lift for initial claims, although didn’t alter a low four-week average, whilst continuing claims were lower than expected and a downward revision left a less pronounced uplift for the reference period for tomorrow’s November report. In trend terms, firms still broadly prefer damping down on re-hiring rather than layoffs for reducing labor costs.
- Initial jobless claims were higher than expected at 224k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Nov 30 after an upward revised 215k (initial 213k).
- It left the four-week moving average at a still very healthy 218k, a third week back exactly in line with the 2019 average having pulled back from 239k in mid-October in peak disruption from Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- The (already published) seasonal factor looks unusual but is likely down to where Thanksgiving lands this year. NSA claims fell by -35k for a relatively low 210k for the time of year - see top right chart below.
- Largest individual declines were seen in California (-9.8k) and Texas (-6.4k).
- Continuing claims on the other hand fell more than expected to 1871k (sa, cons 1904k) in the week oto Nov 23 after a downward revised 1896k (initial 1907k).
- It sees a modest pullback from what had been a fresh high since Nov 2021, and leaves a less pronounced latest climb in the reference period for tomorrow’s payrolls report for November. That 1896k for the week to Nov 16 compares with 1888k for Oct, 1827k for Sep and 1860k for Aug reference periods.
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