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Contrasting BoC Views From BMO and CIBC Post-CPI

CANADA
  • BMO: Turning the temperature down on inflation is proving to be an achingly slow process, and we suspect this may be a theme for 2023. We are leaning to the view of one more hike in Jan to 4.5%, and this firm report does nothing to doubt that. If anything, the stickiness in core trends around 5% or higher hints at the possibility of even further rate hikes, something nobody is talking about.

  • CIBC: Even with the slight upside surprise, the Oct and Nov prints combined leave inflation running below the BoC's October forecast of 7.1% for Q4. CIBC still see the Bank leaving rates on hold in Jan, although there is one more CPI print to come and it would be nice to see signs of deceleration in core measures.

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