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Cooling Input Price Inflation Provides Some Relief

CANADA
  • Industrial product inflation cooled faster than expected in July with -2.1% M/M (cons. -0.8%) after -1.1%, further pushing down the year-ago rate to 11.9% Y/Y having peaked at 18.1% in March.
  • The monthly decline was led by energy & petroleum products sliding -11.6% M/M but prices still fell -0.4% M/M when stripping this out, with Y/Y inflation also further cooling to 7.0% Y/Y and below headline CPI inflation for the second month running.
  • A few of these non-oil items stand out: primary non-ferrous metal products fell -8.9% M/M in a fourth consecutive decline and the first Y/Y drop since Jul’19 at -4.2% along with monthly falls for a variety of industrial metals, whilst cement & glass prices jumped 5.3% M/M – the fastest since Jan’82 – for 12.3% Y/Y.
  • CPI inflation has increasingly been supported by the continued rotation back towards services, in part evidenced by the surge in core-common inflation even if revisions lead us to question the reliability of the data, but the IPPI data point to a further cooling of good price pressures which could provide welcome relief to the BoC, albeit limited whilst core CPI still runs at +0.5% M/M on a SA monthly basis.

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