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COP IBR Swap Rates Partially Reversing Monday Moves

COLOMBIA
  • USDCOP has opened marginally lower today, keeping the pair close to YTD lows, as the peso remains supported by elevated oil prices and attractive carry. Wednesday’s US CPI data remains the key risk event for the pair this week, especially with a light domestic calendar. Beyond that, BBVA note that FX positioning in the high carry COP is increasingly loaded, but volatility is still relatively low and they believe that the currency can continue to perform until there is a catalyst leading to an unwind. In their view, no such catalyst looks imminent or apparent at this time.
  • Meanwhile, Colombian IBR swap rates are 6bp lower early in the session on Tuesday, supported by the move in core yields. This follows the notable underperformance yesterday, when yields rose 15bp or more across much of the curve. Pressure on core yields yesterday likely played a part, along with the small upside surprises in Colombian headline and core CPI inflation and concerns about water rationing in the capital as reservoir levels have fallen sharply.
  • Lingering inflation concerns may limit scope for BanRep to accelerate the easing pace beyond 50bp at its next MPC meeting on April 30, although next week’s February activity data could still change the picture.
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