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COLOMBIA: COP Remains Under Pressure Amid Finance Minister Uncertainty

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • The Colombian peso underperformed peers again on Wednesday, as it remains unclear who will replace Diego Guevara as the new Finance Minister. USDCOP closed 1.09% higher at 4163, taking total gains over the last two sessions to 2.22%. Despite this, USDCOP remains near recent seven-month lows, and 6% below early January highs.
  • BBVA says that while Guevara was seen as market friendly, his potential replacement, Avila Plazas, has more experience on social policies and housing.
  • While expectations had been that BanRep would start shifting dovish with the new board members appointed by President Petro, BBVA believes that these political developments may add back some caution/hawkishness.
  • Scotiabank also believes that BanRep will not be in a hurry to accelerate the easing cycle and sees them staying on hold this month, amid the increase in inflation expectations and global uncertainty. They also highlight yesterday’s better than expected activity data, which suggest that a new cycle is consolidating.
  • Ahead of the March 31 BanRep MPC meeting, business confidence data are due next week, while latest unemployment figures are released at month-end.
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  • The Colombian peso underperformed peers again on Wednesday, as it remains unclear who will replace Diego Guevara as the new Finance Minister. USDCOP closed 1.09% higher at 4163, taking total gains over the last two sessions to 2.22%. Despite this, USDCOP remains near recent seven-month lows, and 6% below early January highs.
  • BBVA says that while Guevara was seen as market friendly, his potential replacement, Avila Plazas, has more experience on social policies and housing.
  • While expectations had been that BanRep would start shifting dovish with the new board members appointed by President Petro, BBVA believes that these political developments may add back some caution/hawkishness.
  • Scotiabank also believes that BanRep will not be in a hurry to accelerate the easing cycle and sees them staying on hold this month, amid the increase in inflation expectations and global uncertainty. They also highlight yesterday’s better than expected activity data, which suggest that a new cycle is consolidating.
  • Ahead of the March 31 BanRep MPC meeting, business confidence data are due next week, while latest unemployment figures are released at month-end.