Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (BBG): " GfK in London reports consumer confidence rose to -19 in March vs -20 in February"
TRAVEL (AFP): "Britain's Heathrow airport, Europe's busiest, was shut down early Friday after a major fire at an electrical substation supplying power to the sprawling facility west of London, officials said."
EU
DEBT (MNI): European Union leaders are likely to split over whether to keep options open for more joint borrowing to boost military spending at this week’s summit, where they will also discuss European Commission proposals for a new EUR150 billion loan programme and an exemption from the bloc's fiscal rules for defence spending, an EU source told MNI.
UKRAINE (RTRS): “European Union leaders said on Thursday that they will continue to support Ukraine, but they did not immediately endorse a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to provide at least 5 billion euros for artillery ammunition purchases.”
DEFENCE (FT/BBG): “European countries including the UK and France are working on plans to take on greater responsibility for the continent’s defense, including a pitch to the Trump administration for a managed shift of the financial and military burden away from the US over the next five to 10 years, the Financial Times reports, citing four European officials involved.”
DEFENCE (BBG): “NATO plans to ask European allies and Canada to increase their stocks of weaponry and equipment by about 30% in the next few years, according to a senior alliance official.”
SPAIN (BBG): “Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will travel to China next month to meet with President Xi Jinping, according to people familiar with the preparations.”
US
US/CHINA (BBG): “ President Xi Jinping’s government is set to welcome a US senator close to Donald Trump for talks in China, as the world’s largest economies try to move forward trade negotiations that have stalled at lower levels.”
US/CHINA (BBG): " China’s imports of US cotton, cars and some energy products all plunged in the first two months of the year after President Donald Trump started imposing tariffs and Beijing retaliated."
MINERALS (BBG): “President Donald Trump is invoking emergency powers to boost the ability of the US to produce critical minerals — and potentially coal — as part of a broad effort to ramp up the development of domestic natural resources and make the country less reliant on foreign imports.”
GOVERNMENT (RTRS): “ Flanked by students and educators, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed an executive order intended to essentially dismantle the federal Department of Education, making good on a longstanding campaign promise to conservatives. The order is designed to leave school policy almost entirely in the hands of states and local boards, a prospect that alarms liberal education advocates.”
GOVERNMENT (BBG): "President Donald Trump has ordered federal agencies to share data across the government, part of his crusade to eliminate the waste and fraud that he says can be uncovered in many programs and departments.
OTHER
ISRAEL (BBG): “Israel’s cabinet approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to fire the country’s domestic intelligence chief, multiple news organizations reported early Friday, a decision that defied thousands of protesters who rallied against his removal and those of other security and judicial officials.”
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday an intense tariff war makes a recession possible but there's a wide range of scenarios, some of his most candid comments to date about the strongest tensions between two of the world's largest trade partners since the 1930s.
CANADA (MNI): Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said Thursday monetary policy will focus on minimizing competing U.S. trade war risks rather than tackling the most likely economic scenario, and being prepared to act fast when things become more certain.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Japan's annual core consumer inflation rate decelerated to 3.0% y/y in February from January’s 3.2% due to lower energy prices, although prices for foods excluding perishables rose, data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed on Friday.
JAPAN (MNI): The Bank of Japan's March Tankan survey will show the benchmark business sentiment will likely fall slightly from three months ago and capital investment plans by major firms in fiscal 2025 are likely to be weaker from a year earlier, economists predicted.
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): The balance of financial assets held by Japanese households stood at a record high of JPY2,230 trillion at the end of December, up 4.0% y/y due to bonuses and for the 19th straight quarterly rise, preliminary fund circulation data released by the Bank of Japan on Friday showed.
CHINA
GROWTH (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “China needs to make “arduous” efforts to achieve this year’s GDP growth target of around 5%, according to a front-page commentary in the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist Party.”
RRR (SECURITIES DAILY): “China will likely cut its policy interest rates this year to shore up its economy, although the benchmark lending rates of local banks have remained unchanged for five consecutive months, according to a report by the Securities Daily, citing analysts.”
HOUSING (SECURITIES DAILY): “Land auction sales in core Chinese cities are heating up as real-estate developers become increasingly confident in new home sales, according to Cao Jingjing, general manager at the China Index Academy.”
SERVICES (XINHUA NEWS AGENCY): “China will further open up its service sector and match international rules to boost services trade, said Premier Li Qiang, during a Fujian province visit.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY87.7 Bln via OMO Friday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY93 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY87.7 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY180.7 billion today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.6406% at 09:36 am local time from the close of 1.8419% on Thursday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 44 on Thursday, compared with the close of 48 on Wednesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1760 Fri; -0.26% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1760 on Friday, compared with 7.1754 set on Thursday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2433 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND FEB TRADE BALANCE NZD 510MN; PRIOR -544MN
NEW ZEALAND FEB EXPORTS NZD 6.74BN; PRIOR 6.06BN
NEW ZEALAND FEB IMPORTS NZD 6.23BN; PRIOR 6.60BN
JAPAN FEB NATL CPI Y/Y 3.7%; MEDIAN 3.5%; PRIOR 4.0%
JAPAN FEB NATL CPI, EX FRESH FOOD Y/Y 3.0%; MEDIAN 2.9%; PRIOR 3.2%
JAPAN FEB NATL CPI, EX FRESH FOOD, ENERGY Y/Y 2.6%; MEDIAN 2.6%; PRIOR 2.5%
SOUTH KOREA FEB PPI Y/Y 1.5% PRIOR 1.8%
SOUTH KOREA MAR EXPORTS 20 DAYS Y/Y 4.5%; PRIOR 16.0%
SOUTH KOREA MAR IMPORTS 20 DAYS Y/Y -1.4%; PRIOR 7.7%
UK MAR GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -19; MEDIAN -20; PRIOR -20
MARKETS
US TSYS: Activity Remains Subdued Post-FOMC
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 111-01, -0-04+ from closing levels.
- Cash US tsys are trading flat to 1bp cheaper following modest gains yesterday. Activity remains subdued as markets continue to digest the FOMC's policy stance post-decision.
- The bulls were relieved by Fed Chair Powell's relatively dovish stance and the dots holding to two rate cuts this year, while bears noted the new 2025 SEP estimates reflecting slowing growth and rising inflation.
- Block Sell: 3800 of TUM5 traded at 103-16 3/8, post-time 03:20:06 GMT. The contract has traded lower since and is currently at 103-15 7/8.
- Fedspeak highlights of today's US calendar with Goolsbee on CNBC and Williams in the Bahamas.
JGBS: Cheaper After Holiday But Off Worst Levels
JGB futures are weaker but off the session’s worst levels, -8 compared to the settlement levels.
- Outside of the previously outlined slightly higher-than-expected National CPI, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- “Japan’s households reduced their collective stash of cash at the fastest pace on record last quarter as they sought to cope with rising costs of living, according to the latest data by the Bank of Japan. The decline mostly likely reflects the wider adoption of cashless consumption as well as a rise in nominal consumer spending due to inflation, a reversal after the pile of cash grew during the Covid pandemic, the BOJ said at a briefing.” (per BBG)
- Cash US tsys are trading flat to 1bp cheaper following modest gains yesterday. Activity remains subdued as markets continue to digest the FOMC's policy stance post-decision. Fedspeak highlights of today's US calendar with Goolsbee on CNBC and Williams in the Bahamas.
- Cash JGBs are 1bp lower to 2bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the futures-linked 7-year underperforming.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower, with a flattening bias. Swap spreads are tighter.
- On Monday, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank PMIs alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs.
AUSSIE BONDS: Subdued Session, CPI Monthly Highlights Next Week
ACGBs (YM -1.0 & XM -2.0) are weaker, sitting mid-range on a data-light day.
- "Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver a pre-election budget on Tuesday, aiming to balance voter appeasement with spending control to avoid rekindling inflation." (see link)
- Cash US tsys are trading flat to 1bp cheaper following modest gains yesterday. Activity remains subdued as markets continue to digest the FOMC's policy stance post-decision. Fedspeak highlights of today's US calendar with Goolsbee on CNBC and Williams in the Bahamas.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +15bps.
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
- The bills strip is flat to -2 across contracts, with a steepening bias.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given a 6% probability, with a cumulative 66bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
- On Monday, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs. Next week’s highlight, however, is likely to be February’s CPI data.
- Next week, the AOFM plans to sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 bond on Monday, A$800mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond on Wednesday and A$700mn of the 1.25% 21 May 2032 bond on Friday.
BONDS: NZGBS: Slightly Cheaper, Subdued Session, Light Calendar Next Week
NZGBs closed mid-range, 1-2bps cheaper, with the 2/10 curve flatter.
- Outside of the previously outlined trade balance data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- (AFR) “Adrian Orr was able to “finish on a high”. That was one way for his deputy to describe the controversial Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor’s shock and unexplained exit at 1.30 pm on Wednesday last week, three years ahead of finishing his second term.” (See BBG link)
- Cash US tsys are trading flat to 1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pacific session, following modest gains yesterday. Activity remains subdued as markets continue to digest the FOMC’s policy stance post-decision.
- Swaps closed showing a twist-flattener, with rates 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 65bps by November 2025.
- The local calendar will be empty until ANZ Consumer Confidence and Filled Jobs data next Friday.
FOREX: USD Index Tracking Up For The Week, Yen Unwinding Thurs Outperformance
The USD index has tracked modestly higher as the Asia Pac session has unfolded. We were last near 1269.85%, up around 0.15%. This is short of recent highs (1271.26) but the index is still set to end the week higher.
- Losses in the G10 space have been fairly uniform, although yen is slightly underperforming. USD/JPY was last near 149.40, up around 0.40%. Yen outperformed on Thursday as EU equities weakened, but this trend hasn't been sustained today.
- Earlier we had Feb national CPI data, which was a touch above expectations in terms of the headline, core ex fresh food measure. Markets didn't react much though, a core measure which excludes all food and energy was fairly benign at 1.5%, while services y/y inflation also moderated.
- For USD/JPY earlier highs this week were at 150.15, so we are still some distance from those levels.
- AUD/USD has ticked down to 0.6290/95, which is still above intra-session lows from Thursday (0.6271). The March 11 low was at 0.6259. NZD/USD is also slightly weaker, back close to 0.5750.
- Weakness in Hong Kong and China equities has likely weighed on AUD and NZD at the margins. There doesn't appear to be a direct fresh catalyst for these equity losses, but markets continue to move off recent highs. Analysts have cited lack of fresh upside catalysts for markets post recent earnings reports.
- EUR/USD is back to 1.0835, but also above recent lows.
- US yields are a touch higher today, but the 10yr near 4.25% is still close to recent lows. US equity futures sit off earlier highs, but remain a touch in positive territory.
- Looking ahead, it is a quiet end to the week with French manufacturing sentiment out. Canadian retail sales also print. In the US we have Fed speak from Williams and Goolsbee (on CNBC).
ASIA STOCKS: Regional Stocks Mixed Despite China Moving Lower
Hong Kong and China equity markets are continuing to correct lower. the HSI off over 2% at this stage, which the tech sub index has lost over 3%. The CSI 300 is down close to 1%.
- Both markets continue to lose momentum from recent highs. Lack of fresh catalysts for further upside momentum is being cited by some analysts as a factor behind the correction.
- BBG noted that "BYD Shares Fall After Report of EU Probing Hungary EV Plant", although this was out on Thursday (reported by the FT, see this link).
- The Hang Seng lead China’s bourses lower down -2.01% today, to be -0.9% lower for the week. The CSI 300 is lower too by -1.11%, capping off a tough week declining -1.8%. The Shanghai Comp is lower by -0.94% whilst Shenzhen is down -1.44%
- One of the regional standouts this week, the KOSPI, is up again today by +0.28% marking it’s fifth day of gains and on track to finish +3.00% higher for the week.
- Following a disjointed week due to a public holiday Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa KLCI Index is up today by +0.35%, but likely to finish lower for the week following Wednesday and Thursday’s losses.
- All eyes on Indonesia this week with the Jakarta Composite volatility rising to such a level it required a trading halt Tuesday. It has not faired better today falling by -2.10% and on track to finish over -4% down for the week.
- Singapore’s Straits Times is having a lackluster finish to the week, up just +0.05% whilst the Philippines is down -0.63% and set to finish marginally down for the week.
- India is opening positive with the NIFTY 50 +0.28%, but is on track for one of its best weeks of the year up +3.7%
OIL: Oil Prices Consolidate, Set to Deliver Strong Week.
- News from the US on further sanctions on a Chinese refinery drove oil higher into the close of US trading overnight.
- Oil Refiner Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemicals are subject to sanctions for buying up to US$500m of Iranian oil according to the US Treasury Department.
- The Treasury is also sanctioning eight oil ships for carrying Iranian oil.
- WTI opened in Asian trading at $68.35 and failed to make much ground all day remaining at that level.
- For the week, WTI has gained +1.75%, its strongest gain in eight weeks.
- Brent opened at $72.39 and traded marginally lower throughout to $72.20.
- For the week, Brent is up +2.2% marking its best gain in eight weeks.
- OPEC+ nations that have exceeded their quotas have provided updates on their plans to reduce production Kazakhstan, Iraq and Russia have consistently failed to cut to the pre-agreed levels from 1 year ago but recent data shows that they are beginning to reduce production, albeit moderately.
- The Trump administration is giving Chevron a further 30 days to halt production in Venezuela following lobbying by the company.
- Global oil forecasters are expecting a surge in new oil projects globally to come online providing a huge supply increase of new crude production, challenging OPEC+ plans to increase production.
GOLD: Profit Takers Evident as Gold Softens into the Weekend.
- As the Federal Reserve left rates on hold and cautioned on inflation gold’s recent good performance continued, reaching new highs.
- But after a strong week, gold lost ground in Asia trading today to fall from its opening level of US3,044.90, to be $3,030.44 into the close.
- Despite the loss, gold is still on track to deliver yet another positive week, up over 1.5%.
- Gold is up over 16% year to date and touched a new high of US$3,057.44 this week.
- Gold activity globally is heating up as the Swiss Federal Customs Administration released details of their exports to the US remaining elevated at 147.4 tonnes, over US$14bn in value whilst shipments to India and Hong Kong fell.
- Yesterday in China, the China Securities Journal ran an article warning retail investors on investing in gold as they expect prices to be volatile going forward.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 21/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** |  GB | Public Sector Finances |
| 21/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | ** |  FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 21/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | EZ Current Account |
| 21/03/2025 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 21/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** |  CA | Retail Trade |
| 21/03/2025 | 1305/0905 |  US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 21/03/2025 | 1500/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 21/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 21/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |