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COPOM Decision Follows FOMC

BRAZIL
  • Brazil’s central bank says it will have updated estimates for inflation and other economic statistics when it decides on interest rates later today, even as a strike halted the publication of its weekly survey of analysts this week.
    • The so-called Focus survey is automated and continues to receive estimates from economists, the bank says, adding that its board members have access to the data and will use them as usual during the rate decision.
  • The Copom are widely expected to hike the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.25% at their June meeting. The more significant issue will be whether the updated guidance within the statement signals the end of the hiking cycle or if the BCB wishes to retain optionality for future meetings. Given recent developments, both domestically and across global markets, the probability of additional tightening beyond Wednesday’s decision have increased.
  • Decision due after markets close around 2230BST / 1730ET, Wednesday June 15, 2022.
  • Full preview: https://marketnews.com/homepage/mni-brazil-central-bank-preview-june-2022-not-finished-yet
  • Brazil’s lower house approved the main text of a bill that that would place a cap on the ICMS tax on fuel, electricity, public transport and telecommunications at 17%-18%.
    • Speaker Lira decided to postpone voting on amendments that can change main text until Wednesday due to technical problems.
  • Today, Economy Minister Guedes in Brasilia meeting with Fitch representatives at 10am local.
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