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Copom Minutes May Point To Tightening Cycle Past March

BRAZIL
Copom Minutes Analysis:
  • Within our review of the meeting, some analysts had pointed out the changed guidance to “next steps” (plural), potentially raises the risk of a continuation of the tightening cycle after March and potentially putting upside pressure on terminal selic rate forecasts.
  • Emboldening this thesis – the minutes inclusion of “additional adjustments” and “next meetings” signals a greater likelihood of the cycle continuing into the May meeting, although clearly the pace of future hikes remains an unknown.

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