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Copom Minutes Released

BRAZIL
  • Uncertainty about economic growth remains larger than usual, especially for the first and second quarters of this year.
  • The discussion about reflation has increased volatility in some markets. This repricing of important financial assets could result in a more challenging environment for emerging economies.
  • Fiscal risks remain high in the short term due to the worsening of the pandemic, which implies an upward bias to inflation projections
  • Regarding the recent dynamics of inflation, the Committee pointed out that, despite the diagnosis that the current shocks are temporary, the Brazilian inflation targeting regime aims at headline inflation in the calendar year. Along with other factors – led to a more assertive stance in the conduct of monetary policy.
  • The Copom also stresses that uncertainty regarding the continuation of the reform agenda and permanent changes to the fiscal consolidation process could result in an increase in the structural interest rate.
  • "For the next meeting, unless there is a significant change in inflation projections or in the balance of risks, the Committee foresees the continuation of the partial normalization process with another adjustment, of the same magnitude, in the degree of monetary stimulus. The Copom emphasizes that its view for the next meeting will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, the balance of risks, and inflation projections and expectations."
  • Link to the full minutes here: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/publications/copomminute...
  • For reference the next Brazil Central Bank decision will be on Wednesday, May 5th.
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