Core Components Accelerate In January

Norway January CPI-ATE printed in line with consensus on an annual basis (5.3% Y/Y vs 5.5% prior), while the NSA monthly rate was a touch firmer than expected at 0.0% M/M (vs -0.1% cons, 0.2% prior). Norges Bank had forecasted 5.4% Y/Y in the December MPR. Overall, there was a broad-based acceleration in the annual rate of core components. EURNOK traded 17 ticks lower on release but has since pared losses.

• A reminder that domestic analysts generally saw CPI-ATE below 5.3% Y/Y, driven by a larger than expected deceleration in food prices in January. Food prices were 8.7% Y/Y (vs 8.9% prior) and 1.4% M/M (vs -2.0% M/M prior).
• Looking at the break-down of the main subcomponents, both services-ex rent (6.5% Y/Y vs 5.1% prior) and Norwegian goods ex-energy (7.2% Y/Y vs 7.1% prior) accelerated on an annual basis in January. Within services, the restaurant/hotels and recreation/culture components rose on an annual basis, with a deceleration in transport prices not enough to offset.
• At a more granular level, Statistics Norway's measure of services where labour inputs dominate rose to 3.8% Y/Y (vs 2.4% prior), the highest rate since May 2023.
• Within core goods, clothing/footwear prices also accelerated. The "Miscellaneous goods and services" component (less than 10% weight in the index) rose 3.8% Y/Y (vs 1.4% prior). We note this appears to be driven by the "other services " sub-component, which rose 8.7% Y/Y (vs 0.7% prior).
• Headline inflation was higher-than-consensus at 4.7% Y/Y (vs 4.6% cons, 4.8% prior) and 0.1% M/M (vs 0.0% cons, 0.1% prior), as energy base effects moderated (energy inflation was -7.2% Y/Y vs -9.8% prior). Norges Bank had forecasted 4.8% in the December MPR.