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Core CPI Expected To Rise To 3.9% In March

POLAND
  • Poland CPI final print coming out tomorrow. Prelim data showed that inflation rose to 3.2% in March, up from 2.4% in February.
  • Core CPI to follow on April 16, expected to surge to 3.9% in March (diverging from the upper end of the tolerance band at 3.5%).
  • Governor Glapinski recently mentioned that the rise in inflation will only be 'temporary' and the inflationary pressures should ease in the second half of 2021.
  • Based on the March projections, NBP policymakers forecast CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2021, 2.8% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.
  • Sell-side projections are lower and expect CPI inflation to average 2.9% in 2021, 2.8 % in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 (see chart below).


  • The 10Y yield has been consolidating lower this week, gradually approaching its 50D SMA support at 1.46%; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 1.40%. on the topside, 1.60% remains the key resistance to watch.

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