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Core CPI Jumps, Outpacing Headline

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN DEC FLASH HICP +0.1% M/M (FCST +0.2%); NOV -0.3% M/M

SPAIN DEC FLASH HICP +5.6% Y/Y (FCST +5.8%); NOV +6.7% Y/Y

  • Spanish CPI decelerated further in the December flash estimate, easing by 1.1pp to +5.6% y/y on the headline print (0.2pp below consensus).
  • Prices edged up by a marginal +0.1% m/m, also lower than expectations of +0.2%. Energy prices provided the bulk of downward price pressure.
  • Despite optimism on the headline data, the 0.6pp jump in core inflation to +6.9% y/y will set off alarm bells for the ECB, as it implies that broad-based price pressures continue to increase. This is a fresh euro-era high for underlying inflation, as Spanish core inflation, after hovering only 0.1pp below the August peak of +6.4% y/y last month.
  • Eurozone CPI is seen softening for a second month running, cooling to +9.6% y/y in the December flash due next Friday.
  • Yet all attention will be on the core print, and whether it budges from +5.0% y/y. The latest Spanish core jump provides evidence for an upside surprise.

Source: INE

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