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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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- Non-housing core service CPI inflation eased in January by varying extents depending on which measure you use.
- Core non-rent of shelter service inflation fell from 0.40% to 0.24% M/M but if you only strip out OER and primary rents, non-housing service inflation eased only modestly from 0.39% to 0.36% M/M as a result of strength in hotel prices in January.
- Morgan Stanley look for this broader non-housing core service measure to ease to 0.14%, in what aside from July’s 0.07% would be the first monthly rate below that consistent 2% annualized inflation since Sep’21. By comparison, BofA forecast an increase to 0.40% M/M.
- Of course this is CPI and not PCE. With the health insurance category irrelevant for PCE services, we will focus on what happens to other medical care service prices to get a better gauge on underlying service inflation.
- A core services print with an upside limited to a bounce in airfares and weaker other details would have notably dovish implications.
- The heavily weighted OER and tenants' rents measures meanwhile are both seen with a further moderation similar to that of January, with an average OER pace closer to 0.6% along with a 'low' 0.7% for primary rents on rounding.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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