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US TSYS: Core FI futures have moved away from session lows that were inspired by
weekend newsflow. The Trump-Xi meeting concluded with a U.S.-China trade truce,
before Trump had an impromptu meeting with North Korean leader Kim. Soft Chinese
data and the realisation that the trade truce holds little in the way of
substance re: structural issues (see G20: ###POV: PROGRESS, BUT NOTHING TO WRITE
HOME ABOUT at 22:51 06/30 BST) allowed yields to tick back from highs. T-Notes
still trade -0-10 at 127-21. Cash Tsys have witnessed some modest bear
flattening. Flow wise, downside strategies were in vogue, with the TYQ9
126.50/126.00 put spread in play. There was also a block seller of FVU9 noted.
- Eurodollar futures last seen 4.0-6.0 ticks lower through the reds. Flow wise
the EDU9 97.500/97.375 put spread provided the highlight, with over 30K trading
on the session.
- Fed fund futures price a ~20% chance of a 50bp cut from the Fed later this
month (after settling at ~28% on Friday).
- U.S. focus moves to the m'fing ISM print and a speech from Fed Vice Chair
Clarida, in addition to any fallout from the weekend's events.