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Core FI off its highs but the market still talking about risk-off events

BONDS

Core fixed income is off the highs seen shortly after the European open; gilts and Bunds are now more in line with last week's close but Treasuries are still higher on the day.

  • There has been little macro or headline rationale for the pullback in core FI with market conversations still focusing on the risk-off aspects of the fall of the Afghan government, softer China data and, to a lesser extent, continued Covid-19 concerns. Equities have not really recovered, however, with most indices across Europe down around 0.5%.
  • There is no tier 1 data due today with US Empire Manufacturing and TIC flows the highlights.
  • Looking ahead to the rest of the week, we have the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday while US retail sales and IP data tomorrow will also be watched. In the UK we have labour market data, inflation, retail sales and public finance data all due this week. The Eurozone data calendar is a lot more sparse.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-7+ today at 134-06 with 10y UST yields down -0.7bp at 1.271% and 2y yields down -0.8bp at 0.201%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.05 today at 176.69 with 10y Bund yields up 0.2bp at -0.466% and Schatz yields down -0.2bp at -0.745%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.03 today at 129.70 with 10y yields up 0.5bp at 0.577% and 2y yields up 0.5bp at 0.136%.
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