Core fixed income markets are fairly...>

BOND SUMMARY: Core fixed income markets are fairly range bound this morning as

markets look ahead to today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's EU Summit.

- No new policy is expected at today's meeting after July's extension to the

PEPP. Even more minor adjustments such as changes to the tiering multiplier are

unlikely at this meeting. Questioning in the press conference will likely focus

on how the ECB handles economic uncertainty and the evolution of PEPP (potential

ceiling, lifespan and capital key deviations). Regarding the EU Summit, our

political risk team see a 65% probability of no full agreement on on the amount

and structure of a COVID-19 recovery package and the EU's next long-term budget,

but enough progress for another summit before end of summer.

- The UK DMO released its gilt remit this morning and looks to issue another

GBP110bln of gilts between Sep-Nov (broadly in line with expectations.

- Economic data highlights today include US retail sales for June and weekly

claims data. We also have speeches from the Fed's Williams, Bostic and Evans.

- TY1 futures are flat today at 139-11 with Bund futures down -0.05 at 176.07

and Gilt futures up 0.14 at 137.79.