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Free AccessCore fixed income under pressure
- Core fixed income is lower across the board this morning. Once again gilts have led the way lower with yields up around 10bp across the curve as the market remains jittery about the outcome of the Conservative party leadership contest. Sunak is currently favourite, ahead of Johnson with Mordaunt the other most viable candidate. It is unclear whether any of the candidates can bring unity to the party and also unclear exactly what this means for the 31 October fiscal plan and OBR forecasts. UK terminal rates have risen back to around 5.18% and are driving the moves in the wider gilt market.
- The German curve is also lower, partially pulled lower by gilts and partially by headlines that the German parliament has voted to suspend the debt break. This was widely expected but caused a knee jerk market reaction nonetheless with 10-year Bund yields rising above 2.50% for the first time since 2011.
- A big risk later will see both the S&P and Moody's review their ratings for the UK. S&P (at AA but with a negative outlook) currently rates the UK a notch above Moody's (at Aa3 with a stable outlook). There are risks to both of these from the increase in borrowing costs, political stability and slowing economic growth.
- TY1 futures are down -0-6 today at 109-05+ with 10y UST yields up 4.2bp at 4.271% and 2y yields down -1.4bp at 4.598%.
- Bund futures are down -1.28 today at 134.42 with 10y Bund yields up 9.4bp at 2.493% and Schatz yields up 8.2bp at 2.186%.
- Gilt futures are down -1.60 today at 973.34 with 10y yields up 9.5bp at 3.999% and 2y yields up 9.5bp at 3.627%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.