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US INFLATION: Core PCE Consensus Upped After CPI To 11-Month High 0.31%

US INFLATION
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America

As anticipated after the CPI release, analysts have upped their expectations for February's core PCE reading to a median consensus of 0.31% M/M per the notes we've seen (vs 0.24% prior to today, and an acceleration from 0.29% prior) for what would be an 11-month high. 

  • Various factors are likely to bring core PCE in above its CPI equivalent (0.23%), with the downside surprise in core CPI largely due to softer-than-expected airfares and auto insurance - categories that don't feed from CPI into PCE.
  • Instead those categories will come from Thursday's PPI report, along with other categories such as portfolio management.

Post-CPI estimates for February core PCE % M/M:

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As anticipated after the CPI release, analysts have upped their expectations for February's core PCE reading to a median consensus of 0.31% M/M per the notes we've seen (vs 0.24% prior to today, and an acceleration from 0.29% prior) for what would be an 11-month high. 

  • Various factors are likely to bring core PCE in above its CPI equivalent (0.23%), with the downside surprise in core CPI largely due to softer-than-expected airfares and auto insurance - categories that don't feed from CPI into PCE.
  • Instead those categories will come from Thursday's PPI report, along with other categories such as portfolio management.

Post-CPI estimates for February core PCE % M/M:

Keep reading...Show less