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Core PCE Seen Little Over 0.4% M/M In September

US DATA
  • Core PCE inflation (Oct 28) seen ranging between 0.36%-0.55% M/M by GS, JPM, NWM and MS, averaging 0.43%.
  • These take into account of PPI, and if accurate would mark a limited moderation from the 0.56% in Aug, leaving July the only month since early 2021 that fell below the monthly rate consistent with the 2% target.
  • Recall Waller said “If [core PCE] starts to drift into the mid to lower 0.2s and it keeps going then it’s saying we’re heading to inflation closer to 3% annualized. But I have to see that for months... it's got to be a real permanent longer-term decline” having got burned last year. Waller speaks again in 30mins.

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