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Core PCE Seen Slowing To 0.2% M/M, Known Q3 Net Downward Revisions

US DATA

The monthly PCE report for October lands at 0830ET.

  • Looking at core PCE inflation, consensus sees 0.2% M/M after the 0.30% M/M in September.
  • Post CPI and PPI updates saw a few analysts eyeing an average 0.19% M/M (GS 0.16, MS 0.17, JPM 0.21 and Nomura 0.215).
  • Since then, we saw yesterday that core PCE back in Q3 was revised down from 2.43% to 2.31% annualized, which depending on where it landed in the quarter could influence latest M/M figures.
  • Going back to the post CPI/PPI estimates, MS eyed core services ex-housing at 0.16% M/M whilst Nomura forecast 0.22%, both a sizeable moderation from the 0.42% in September.
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