Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The CoreLogic house price index fell 1.2% m/m in December to be down 7.1% y/y (November -1.1% m/m & 5.4% y/y). This was the eighth consecutive fall and it now stands 8.7% below its peak, so far one of the largest corrections globally, but still 9.6% above its linear trend. Many expect house prices to fall around 20% from their April 2022 peak. This data is unlikely to result in the RBA pausing in February.
- The housing market is an area that the RBA is watching closely as it can have significant knock on effects to the rest of the economy. While dwelling prices continue to fall, they continue to do so in an orderly manner and haven’t yet reached the expected trough. The RBA expects defaults to be contained due to high savings buffers and advance mortgage payments. With a large number of mortgages refinancing in the first half of 2023 and previous rate hikes still feeding through, the housing correction has further to go.
- Sydney is seeing the worst of the correction with prices down a further 1.4% to be down 12.1% y/y and 12.2% off the 2022 peak. Melbourne fell 1.2% and is 8.1% below its peak.
- House prices turn following housing affordability. If we assume that disposable income rose in line with the 2022 quarterly average in Q4, then there was a further deterioration in housing affordability in the last quarter of the year to its lowest since Q2 2011. Our index is now 26.5% below its trend on the back of higher rates and lower house prices.
CoreLogic property value index
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/CoreLogic
Housing Affordability
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv *Q4:22 estimate
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok