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DOLLAR-YEN: *Correct* (Changed to TD Securities as opposed to TS) TD Securities
sold USDJPY at 109.50 on Thursday, with a stop at 112.10 and a target of 105.00.
- TD believe that "USDJPY's risk/reward profile has tilted to the downside. Our
US rates team is fading the elevated backdrop in yields; real yields have
stalled near the taper tantrum highs and the Fed has been priced to perfection.
The FOMC minutes confirmed that the Fed is tolerant of an inflation overshoot,
suggesting unattractive risk/reward of pricing in more hikes. Against this
backdrop, and with USDJPY rekindling its romance with 10yr USTs, we expect the
pair to exhibit the first signs of USD fatigue. Trade rhetoric and geopolitical
tensions have also intensified, while the situation in Italy - though overblown
in our view - remains fluid. This is not a conducive backdrop for risk and we
expect the trade to be aided by cross/ JPY supply (most notably in EURJPY).
Technically, USDJPY looks overbought; the daily RSI is elevated and the pair has
punched through a confluence of critical supports located near 110, a move that
should signal accelerated declines. Trend line resistance from the 2015 cycle
highs located near 112 should be material."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.