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Costa Says Inflation Expectations Well Anchored, March Activity Data Due

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  • BCCh President Costa said yesterday that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the economy has closed its significant macro imbalances of recent years. The policy rate will continue to decline, but the bank should be cautious, she said, and the magnitude and timing of future reduction will be assessed meeting by meeting. The next MPC meeting is on May 23.
  • On the data front, activity data for March will be released at 1400BST(0900ET), including retail sales, IP, copper production and labour market data. For March, activity will be negatively affected by three fewer working days, with retail sales growth expected to slow to 2.9% y/y and IP growth declining to 3.8% y/y. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.7% in March, from 8.5%.
    • March Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 3.9%
    • March Unemployment Rate, est. 8.7%, prior 8.5%
    • March Industrial Production YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 7.9%
  • Separately, the government is seeking to introduce new security measures and a new antiterrorist law following the murder of three policemen over the weekend. Lawmakers agreed to accelerate the discussion of new security bills this week.
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  • BCCh President Costa said yesterday that inflation expectations remain well anchored and that the economy has closed its significant macro imbalances of recent years. The policy rate will continue to decline, but the bank should be cautious, she said, and the magnitude and timing of future reduction will be assessed meeting by meeting. The next MPC meeting is on May 23.
  • On the data front, activity data for March will be released at 1400BST(0900ET), including retail sales, IP, copper production and labour market data. For March, activity will be negatively affected by three fewer working days, with retail sales growth expected to slow to 2.9% y/y and IP growth declining to 3.8% y/y. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 8.7% in March, from 8.5%.
    • March Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.9%, prior 3.9%
    • March Unemployment Rate, est. 8.7%, prior 8.5%
    • March Industrial Production YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 7.9%
  • Separately, the government is seeking to introduce new security measures and a new antiterrorist law following the murder of three policemen over the weekend. Lawmakers agreed to accelerate the discussion of new security bills this week.