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CHINA: Country Wrap: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged

CHINA
EM BulletAPACChinaEmerging Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Today’s fixing of the 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates was as expected with no change.  The 1-year is the reference rate for corporate loans and the 5-year reference rate used by banks for mortgages.  For a fourth straight month, we did not expect any change in the rates charged with the 1-year steady at 3.10% and the 5-year at 3.60%. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • The decline in Foreign Direct Investment in China continued in January with reported numbers down -13.4%.  FDI in Yuan terms was CNY97.5bn, according to the Ministry of Commerce.  January’s result represents the twentieth consecutive month of decline in FDI and follows on from the 2024 result which was the weakest in eight years.  Whilst January’s numbers were an improvement from the month prior, the worrying trend continues, as evidenced by Commerce Minister Wang and Vice Premier He meeting with Japanese delegations in a bid to improve bilateral ties. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • China’s equity markets were very heavy today with the Hang Seng lower by -0.86%, CSI 300 -0.12%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp better by  +0.08% and +0.74% respectively.
  • CNY:  Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1712 Per USD; Estimate 7.2874
  • Bonds: as curve flattening continues in China, the CGB 10YR is up 2bp at 1.70% 
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  • Today’s fixing of the 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates was as expected with no change.  The 1-year is the reference rate for corporate loans and the 5-year reference rate used by banks for mortgages.  For a fourth straight month, we did not expect any change in the rates charged with the 1-year steady at 3.10% and the 5-year at 3.60%. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • The decline in Foreign Direct Investment in China continued in January with reported numbers down -13.4%.  FDI in Yuan terms was CNY97.5bn, according to the Ministry of Commerce.  January’s result represents the twentieth consecutive month of decline in FDI and follows on from the 2024 result which was the weakest in eight years.  Whilst January’s numbers were an improvement from the month prior, the worrying trend continues, as evidenced by Commerce Minister Wang and Vice Premier He meeting with Japanese delegations in a bid to improve bilateral ties. (source: MNI – Market News)
  • China’s equity markets were very heavy today with the Hang Seng lower by -0.86%, CSI 300 -0.12%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp better by  +0.08% and +0.74% respectively.
  • CNY:  Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1712 Per USD; Estimate 7.2874
  • Bonds: as curve flattening continues in China, the CGB 10YR is up 2bp at 1.70%