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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
The German Constitutional Court's ruling on 15 Nov that struck-down a EUR60bn off-budget climate fundrisks not only blowing a hole in the federal budgets and scuppering Germany's green transition plans, but also could cause further disagreements within the already-shaky 'traffic light' governing coalition.
- The gov't is already engaged in contentious budget negotiations for 2024, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz claimed would not be impacted by the ruling. The decision risks further ground being exposed between Economy Minister Robert Habeck's Greens and Finance Minister Christian Lindner's pro-business liberal Free Democrats (FDP), with Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) stuck in the middle.
- Habeck previously said an unfavourable ruling, "would pull the floor from under" Germany's green transition plans. Lindner, the architect of the controversial 'shadow budgets', remains a staunch fiscal conservative and has sought to push back against any efforts to dismantle the constitutional debt brake.
- Bloomberg wrote earlier in Nov on the prospect of Habeck already positioning himself and his party for the next federal election, due in 2025 at the latest via calls for loosening the fiscal pursestrings.
- Should current polling be reflected in a federal election, the centre-right Union (CDU/CSU) would emerge as the largest party. The Union would then be left with a stark choice. Forming a 'Kenya' coalition with the Greens and SPD, a 'Jamaica' coalition with the Greens and FDP (should the latter cross the 5% threshold), or, in an extremely unlikely but political landscape-altering move, with the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Chart 1. Germany Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Forsa, INSA, Civey, FGW, Infratest dimap, Kantar, Allensbach, YouGov, Ipsos, Wahlkreisprognose, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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