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CPI Accompanies COVID As Main Drivers Today

AUD

AUD/USD finished lower on Tuesday but managed to recover from session lows. The pair fell as low as 0.7337 in the European morning before recovering to 0.7385 in the US session, the recovery wasn't sustained, and the pair closed at 0.7362.

  • Early speculation is doing the rounds re: the NSW COVID case count, with some suggestions that the state could record 200+ new cases today. NSW Premier Berejiklian is expected to announce a four-week extension to the lockdown. Victoria declared eight new cases in the past 24 hours, the state will tentatively emerge from its fifth lockdown today though the easing of restrictions accompanied by a tightening of the border with NSW.
  • Elsewhere, Q2 CPI will catch the eye. Consensus looks for a headline uptick to 3.7% Y/Y and 0.7% Q/Q, with the trimmed mean readings seen at +1.6% Y/Y and +0.5% Q/Q. The readings aren't expected to have any meaningful impact on RBA policy, given the broader views re: the transitory nature of the current inflationary impulse. As a reminder, the RBA has pencilled in 3.25% Y/Y for headline CPI and 1.5% Y/Y for trimmed mean inflation in Q2. Further afield, Chinese equity market matters will be watched, the CSI 300 is now down over 8 from Thursday last week after a regulatory crackdown seemingly spooked investors.
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