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CPI Ahead At 0830ET

CANADA
  • CPI for Nov headlines today’s docket, landing at 0830ET along with industrial prices.
  • We wrote a quick snapshot yesterday (1427ET), but it’s also worth noting that with the BoC looking at trend rather than short-term improvements, there could be more pertinent to look at 6-month rather than 3-month run rates.
  • Assuming the same M/M rates for trim and median inflation from October, purely as a demonstration of recent trends, the 3-month would ease meaningfully from 3.0% to 2.0% annualized for its first return to the 2% target since Feb’21, but the 6-month would only dip a tenth to 3.1% annualized (still lowest since Jun'21).
  • Revisions could as ever shape recent trends as well and will also be watched closely.

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