December 09, 2022 07:47 GMT
CPI Cools from '87 Highs, Stats Norway Sees Sticky 2023 Inflation
NORWAY
MNI (London)
NORWAY NOV CPI -0.2% M/M (FCST +0.3%); OCT +0.3% M/M
NORWAY NOV CPI +6.5% Y/Y (FCST +7.0%); OCT +7.5% Y/Y
NORWAY NOV UNDERLYING CPI -0.1% M/M, +5.7% Y/Y (FCST +6.0%); OCT +5.9% Y/Y
- Norwegian CPI was lower than anticipated in November, declining by -0.2% m/m (vs Oct and forecast +0.3%) and easing 1pp to +6.5% y/y in November (vs forecast +7.0%).
- The Norges Bank's closely watched underlying CPI (CPI-ATE) recorded a downside surprise, ticking down 0.3pp from the October series high to +5.7% y/y.
- Month-on-month downward pressure emanated from easing food, furnishings, transport, communications, recreation and hospitality prices.
- Statistics Norway released their December Economic Trends report this morning.
- Tighter monetary policy is seen dragging on growth, with the key policy rate projected to peak at 3% at the start of 2023, implying 50bp of tightening remaining in the current cycle. Rates should ease again towards the end of 2023, to around 2% in 2024.
- Growth expectations were updated to 3.8% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023. CPI is projected to be 5.8% in 2022, easing to 4.9% in 2023 (markedly higher than the Sept forecast of 2.5%), although a sharp decline is seen towards 2023 year-end.
Norway CPI 12-Month Rate:
Source: Statistics Norway
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