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CPI Dispersion Offers A More Encouraging Angle Again

CANADA DATA
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  • By our calculations, the share of the CPI basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y held at ~33% for a third month running.
  • As noted in the preview, this is down from 80% in late 2022, back to the 33% averaged in 2019 and close to than the longer-term average of 28%.
  • The composition this month was more friendly though, reversing the net hawkish findings from May.
  • Specifically, the share of goods in excess of 3% Y/Y actually ticked 1.5pp higher to 27.5% (2019 av 34%) whilst the share of services fully unwound May’s increase as it fell from 52% to 46% (2019 av 31%).
  • The latter is still clearly above pre-pandemic norms and offers continued worries about stickiness, but it does at least see a resumption of what had started to be a more encouraging disinflation trend earlier in the year.

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  • By our calculations, the share of the CPI basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y held at ~33% for a third month running.
  • As noted in the preview, this is down from 80% in late 2022, back to the 33% averaged in 2019 and close to than the longer-term average of 28%.
  • The composition this month was more friendly though, reversing the net hawkish findings from May.
  • Specifically, the share of goods in excess of 3% Y/Y actually ticked 1.5pp higher to 27.5% (2019 av 34%) whilst the share of services fully unwound May’s increase as it fell from 52% to 46% (2019 av 31%).
  • The latter is still clearly above pre-pandemic norms and offers continued worries about stickiness, but it does at least see a resumption of what had started to be a more encouraging disinflation trend earlier in the year.