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CPI Expected to Cool Slightly to 25.4% y/y Tomorrow (0730 GMT/0830 CET)

HUNGARY
  • CPI data is on the docket tomorrow morning at 0730 GMT/0830 CET, where prices are expected to cool slightly to 25.4% y/y after the removal of the fuel cap in 2022 mechanically increased inflation at the beginning of the year (Prior: 25.7% y/y).
  • The central bank kept the key and effective rates unchanged at its latest meeting on the premise that CPI is likely to remain at its peak for some time before disinflation accelerates in Q2.
  • While CPI may have peaked, the disinflationary pace will largely depend on base effects, with headline inflation expected to remain the highest in the EU. Therefore, the NBH will be wary of any potential upside price developments that suggest inflation is stickier than expected - as such will be paying close attention to the core component which accelerated in January.
  • On the other hand, a softer inflation print may alleviate pressure to keep rates restrictive in order to support the economy which has recorded a lower-than-expected 4.7% y/y fall in retail sales and 3.2% y/y decline in industrial production this week.
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