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CPI In Focus – 0830ET

CANADA
  • The Bloomberg median sees headline CPI slowing from 6.9% to 6.7% Y/Y in Nov, with a typically wide range of 6.3-6.8% but all seeing at least some moderation.
  • CPI median and trim measures are expected to show little sign of progress in Y/Y terms, at 4.9% Y/Y (+0.1pp) and 5.3% Y/Y (unch).
  • However, recent sequential moderation is expected to be confirmed. CIBC, at the high end of consensus with 6.8% Y/Y for headline, expect the 3-month ex-food & energy rate to hold at circa 3.5% annualized with today’s release, down from 8% in May.
  • From the BoC's December statement: "Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated."

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