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CPI Lower As Spain Bucks Trend; GDP Lower

SPAIN DATA
MNI (London)

SPAIN CPI +0.4% M/M, +7.3% Y/Y (8.9% SEP)

SPAIN HICP +0.1% Y/Y, +7.3% Y/Y (9.0% SEP)

SPAIN Q3 GDP +0.2% Q/Q, +3.8% Y/Y (6.8% Y/Y IN Q2)

  • Spanish CPI surprised to the downside in the October flash, at +0.1% m/m and slowing to +7.3% y/y from +9.0% y/y in the harmonised print
  • The fall in electricity prices was the key downwards driver, with a less substantial decline in gas prices also of note.
  • Despite the slowdown in headline CPI, the national core inflation estimate remains on par with September at +6.2% y/y.
  • This data was largely in line with estimates, implying that it will do little to budge the aggregate eurozone figure due on Monday.
  • The Spanish economy advanced by a modest +0.2% q/q in the flash estimate for Q3.This is substantially slower than +1.5% q/q in Q2. Compared to Q3 2021, growth was +3.8% y/y, slowing from +6.8% y/y in Q2. Both data points are 0.1pp below estimates.
  • Final consumption expenditure was stronger at +1.0% q/q (Q2 +0.5%), along with domestic demand at +1.1% q/q (Q2 +0.6%) implying robust demand for the quarter, whilst exports and construction were significantly lower.

Spain CPI (National Print - not harmonised)

Source: INE

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