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CPI Preview: March Release

CANADA
  • Headline CPI is seen falling nine tenths to 4.3% Y/Y in March, with an unusually tight range of 4.1-4.5% compared to typical analyst surveys.
  • It comes on base effects with the 0.5/0.6% expected increase comparing with a very strong 1.4% M/M from Mar’22, part of the BoC’s forecast of getting inflation to 3% by the summer after which progress is likely to be much slower.
  • Core measures: Median and trim measures are expected to dip 0.4pps to an average 4.45% Y/Y, ramping up the pace of moderation after last month’s in line 0.2pp decline, whilst we also watch the more traditional CPI ex food & energy after it eased a tenth to 4.84% Y/Y in Feb.
  • As always, whilst performance relative to consensus is more easily seen in the Y/Y figures, we will watch M/M developments most closely for latest trends compared to the Bank's 2% inflation target figures are more easily compared, with recent run rates closer to 3.5% annualized.
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