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CPI Surges to +10.7% in Oct Flash

MNI (London)

EUROZONE FLASH OCT CPI +1.5% M/M (FCST +1.2%); SEP +1.2% M/M

EUROZONE FLASH OCT CPI +10.7% Y/Y (FCST +10.3%); SEP +9.9% Y/Y

EUROZONE FLASH OCT CORE CPI +0.6% M/M, +5.0% Y/Y (= FCST); SEP +4.8% Y/Y

  • Following substantial upside surprises across France, Italy and Germany's CPI prints on Friday, eurozone aggregate inflation jumped by 0.8pp to +10.7% y/y and accelerated by +1.5% m/m alone. This is a fresh euro-era high and over 1pp higher than initial estimates prior to Friday's national data.
  • Energy prices accelerated by +41.9% y/y (vs 40.7% in Sep). Food jumped by 1.3pp to a fresh high of +13.1% y/y. Core inflation quickened by 0.2pp to +5.0% y/y on the back of a 0.5pp increase in industrial goods to +6.0% y/y and a 0.1pp increase in service prices to +4.4% y/y.
  • There was a marked divergence across eurozone economies in October. Eastern European states with inflation rates over 20% saw prices decelerate, along with significant improvements in Spain and Greece. Western Europe largely saw inflation heat up further.
  • This data alongside the slightly stronger-than-expected +0.2% q/q Q3 GDP flash print put the decision to slow the pace in December all but off the table.

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