BELGIUM
Belgian preliminary April CPI came in at 3.37% Y/Y (vs 3.18% prior, no consensus available), the highest since August 2023, but despite that uptick (which was largely energy base effect related), overall this was a disinflationary report.
- Sequential inflation pulled back sharply at -0.48% M/M (0.55% prior, and again, no consensus), the first while core CPI (ex-energy/unprocessed food) decelerated for the 11th consecutive month, at 3.26% Y/Y (3.85% prior).
- A sharp slowdown in food prices (to 0.25% Y/Y from 3.21% prior) offset the positive impact of energy inflation (+9.19% Y/Y from -1.61% prior). Ex-Energy CPI was 2.87% Y/Y (3.86% prior), the lowest since January 2022.
- From an HICP perspective, April's 4.9% Y/Y reading is well above March's 3.8% and the highest since March 2023 - though again this appears to be driven by energy base effects.
- Belgian services inflation edged lower to 4.93% Y/Y from 5.04% prior, which at the margins may help confirm expectations that Eurozone-wide services prices area set to soften in April (travel was one of the negative contributors, potentially another illustration of the March Easter effect reversing).
- Outside of the stronger annual energy base effects though, which is seen elsewhere in the Eurozone, there isn't much readthrough to the Eurozone-wide print out tomorrow. Belgium represents 3.8% of the overall Eurozone HICP basket.
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