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CPI to Steer, But Not Accelerate, BoC Thinking on MonPol

CAD
  • Dust settles with CAD holding weaker after the lower-than-expected CPI - USD/CAD briefly showed a new daily high of 1.3516 before fading very slightly. Prices still well short of Thursday pre-PPI highs at 1.3552.
  • While the CPI was softer than expected on the headline (as well as the core metrics) there are a couple of one-offs here that may suggest this pace of disinflation will not be maintained (namely the 12% drop in telephone services line item and the rolling off of base effects surrounding gasoline prices).
  • So, while it's a material miss on expectations, this standalone release may only move the BoC conversation on the margins, leaving CAD more subject to global sentiment shifts, rather than BoC policy ruminations - as flagged by a number of sell-side desks this week.
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