CredAg Results; Few Surprises, Few Credit Implications

Credit Agricole (ACA FP) 4Q23 results out which were broadly in line with consensus (perhaps quality will be questioned by equity investors) and there are few credit implications at this stage.

• CASA revenues were flat y/y and 2% below consensus, costs were +15% y/y and 4% worse than consensus but credit losses were flat y/y, better than expected, meaning net profit was broadly in line (helped by tax rate). The dividend is a little ahead of consensus, too.
• Key credit metrics: loan losses rose to 26bp of loans at CA Group level (from 24bp in 3Q23) and the net NPL ratio ticked down 10bp to 2.1% from Sep-23. CET1 is 11.7% (flat q/q) and 17.4% at CA Group level (+10bp q/q).
• The bank has given no meaningful outlook statement and all the major French banks have now reported so there are few laterals to be seen here but also little to move the credit.

Conf call is 1200 London time at https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/penr278e