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Credit Agricole Warn Of Spillover Risk From Australia-NZ Travel Bubble

NZD
  • In a note to clients, Credit Agricole warn of the risks to the New Zealand economy should the Australia-New Zealand travel bubble be suspended across the New Zealand ski season.
  • They write that the majority of NZ-bound tourists hail from Australia's New South Wales, and the recent suspension of the travel bubble with the state (due to a Delta outbreak in Sydney) could stretch to cover the entirety of Australia.
  • With as much as 20% of the New Zealand economy geared toward tourism, GDP and activity could suffer a blow should Australia's quarantine-free travel with NZ be revoked.
  • As such, NZD could be risk. The NZD/USD RSI has recently recovered from oversold levels, leaving NZD bears with room to reload on shorts should more negative newsflow cross. $0.6923 marks first key support (the 2021 low) and a break below here exposes a deeper decline toward 0.6703, the 38.2% retracement for the 2020-2021 rally.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
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