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Credit Suisse expect "USDZAR to trade in a.....>

RAND
RAND: Credit Suisse expect "USDZAR to trade in a wide range between 12.00 and
13.00 in the short run. Domestic catalysts such as early elections and land
reform are unlikely to change the sentiment towards the rand in a big way.
Further down the line, we remain structurally bullish on the currency and expect
outperformance against the EMFX complex."
- CS note that "although the near-term risks to USDZAR are on both sides, we are
still comfortable with the idea of recommending long-rand exposures in general.
Our rationale is based on the idea that the South African economy operates below
its potential leaving decent room for upside surprises, although we recognize
that these expectations are priced in to some extent."
- As a result CS "recommend trading the 12.00-13.00 range in USDZAR over the
near-term. At this point we feel more strongly about fading weakness than
selling USDZAR on a downward move. As a general bias, we like long-ZAR positions
against other EM high yielders. For example, for benchmark investors we think it
makes sense to hold an overweight exposure to the rand on the account of their
average exposure to the rest of the EM high-yielding complex."
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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