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Free AccessCredit Suisse expect "USDZAR to trade in a.....>
RAND: Credit Suisse expect "USDZAR to trade in a wide range between 12.00 and
13.00 in the short run. Domestic catalysts such as early elections and land
reform are unlikely to change the sentiment towards the rand in a big way.
Further down the line, we remain structurally bullish on the currency and expect
outperformance against the EMFX complex."
- CS note that "although the near-term risks to USDZAR are on both sides, we are
still comfortable with the idea of recommending long-rand exposures in general.
Our rationale is based on the idea that the South African economy operates below
its potential leaving decent room for upside surprises, although we recognize
that these expectations are priced in to some extent."
- As a result CS "recommend trading the 12.00-13.00 range in USDZAR over the
near-term. At this point we feel more strongly about fading weakness than
selling USDZAR on a downward move. As a general bias, we like long-ZAR positions
against other EM high yielders. For example, for benchmark investors we think it
makes sense to hold an overweight exposure to the rand on the account of their
average exposure to the rest of the EM high-yielding complex."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.