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Credit Suisse Up SNB Expectations to 50bps Hike in March, 25bps Hike in June

SNB
  • On the SNB, Credit Suisse bump up their rate hike expectations, and now foresee 50bps at March's meeting (previous view was 25bps). They also add 25bps forecast for the June meeting, putting rates at a peak of 1.75%.
  • The change is due to a larger-than-expected rise in rent for November, meaning their 2023 inflation view is upped to 1.7% from 1.5%. Their conviction on a June hike is lower than that of March, but they continue to sense that the SNB will prefer the policy rate to be the main policy instrument over and above any reduction in the balance sheet.
  • On FX, they see the SNB continuing to sell FX, with increasing depreciation pressure being met by more sizeable intervention going forward.
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