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FRANCE
The re-election of President of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet on the evening of 18 July provides a welcome boost to President Emmanuel Macron ahead of what are likely to prove lengthy and potentially rancorous negotiations over the formation of France's next gov't. Braun-Pivet, who has held the role since 2022, won in the third round of voting, garnering the support of 220 deputies, compared to 208 for the nominee of the leftist New Popular Front (NFP), Andre Chassaigne and 141 for Sebastien Chenu of the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN).
- Braun-Pivet won through with the backing of parties that formed the pro-Macron Ensemble alliance in the legislative election, as well as deputies from the centre-right Les Republicains (now sitting in the National Assembly as the 'Republican Right') and the regionalist LIOT.
- The 'republican front' appears to be functioning as well in parliament as it did in the legislative election. Then, it saw parties (and voters) of the centre and left coalesce against RN. In this vote it has seen centrists and conservatives united against the left. Indeed, LR deputy Annie Genevard stated after the vote that "We were not going to have a communist elected to head the National Assembly,".
- It should be noted that while Braun-Pivet's election makes it easier for Macron to appoint a PM from within the centrist group, it is no guarantee that a stable gov't can be formed by the centrists and conservatives given they do not hold a majority.
Chart 1. National Assembly, Seats
Source: Le Monde
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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