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OIL: Crude Continues To Worry About Tariff Impact On Demand

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Oil prices were up moderately on Friday but coming off their intraday highs on news that US President Trump plans to announce “reciprocal” tariffs this week to “address the deficit”. This morning he has said that there will be universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports announced. Increased protectionism is making oil markets nervous because of their impact on global demand. The USD has strengthened in response.

  • WTI rose 0.6% on Friday to $71.06/bbl after reaching a high of $71.41. It continues to trade below the 50-day EMA at $72.20 opening support at $70.43. Initial resistance is at $75.18, February 3 high. The benchmark approached oversold territory on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Brent is up 0.5% to $74.69/bbl to be down 1.3% this month. It remains below the 50-day EMA at $75.43 opening up support at $74.10, February 6 low. Initial resistance is at $78.80 with the bull trigger at $81.20.
  • Oil is struggling with the highly uncertain outlook. It is concerned by the impact of 10% tariffs on US imports from China and China’s retaliatory measures, while 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed the outcome of that dispute remains unclear. Then there is the supply side with tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran but Trump vowing to boost the US’ production. Before the new US administration 2025 was widely forecast to have a surplus.
  • Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese refineries have reduced production rates to levels last seen during Covid with demand remaining soft and lower flows from Russia given the tightening of sanctions, especially on the shadow fleet. 
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Oil prices were up moderately on Friday but coming off their intraday highs on news that US President Trump plans to announce “reciprocal” tariffs this week to “address the deficit”. This morning he has said that there will be universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports announced. Increased protectionism is making oil markets nervous because of their impact on global demand. The USD has strengthened in response.

  • WTI rose 0.6% on Friday to $71.06/bbl after reaching a high of $71.41. It continues to trade below the 50-day EMA at $72.20 opening support at $70.43. Initial resistance is at $75.18, February 3 high. The benchmark approached oversold territory on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
  • Brent is up 0.5% to $74.69/bbl to be down 1.3% this month. It remains below the 50-day EMA at $75.43 opening up support at $74.10, February 6 low. Initial resistance is at $78.80 with the bull trigger at $81.20.
  • Oil is struggling with the highly uncertain outlook. It is concerned by the impact of 10% tariffs on US imports from China and China’s retaliatory measures, while 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed the outcome of that dispute remains unclear. Then there is the supply side with tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran but Trump vowing to boost the US’ production. Before the new US administration 2025 was widely forecast to have a surplus.
  • Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese refineries have reduced production rates to levels last seen during Covid with demand remaining soft and lower flows from Russia given the tightening of sanctions, especially on the shadow fleet.