Crude Down Further On US Recession Fears, Increased Stocks

The oil market has returned to being concerned about global growth after Wednesday’s US data was weaker than expected and Fed speakers came out hawkish. WTI is down a further 1.5% during the APAC session to around $78.25/bbl, close to the intraday low and the lowest since Friday.

• Brent is also trading close to its intraday low at around $83.88/bbl and down 1.3% from the NY close. It broke through the bull trigger at $87.00 on Wednesday affirming the bullish theme and opening up $89.18, the December 1 high. WTI also cleared its bull trigger and opened up $83.27.
• The IEA noted that in Q1 2023 supply is expected to exceed demand by about 1mbd but as China drives a pickup in demand over the rest of the year the outlook should improve. But a tightening of the market could drive prices sharply higher if there any supply issues. Russian output remains a significant uncertainty.
• API reported a 7.6mn crude inventory build in the US after +14.865mn the previous week. Rising stocks have also been weighing on prices. The EIA reports it inventory data later.
• US building permits and housing starts plus jobless claims and the Philly manufacturing survey are published today. ECB’s Lagarde is also scheduled to speak.