Crude Edges Higher Ahead of Delayed OPEC+ Meeting

Crude continues to edge higher after volatile trading yesterday as the market assess the risk from future OPEC+ supplies and member quotas ahead of the delayed virtual meeting later today. Expectation is that Saudi are likely to extend voluntary cuts into next year, but delegates said deeper group cuts of 1mbpd or more may be considered according to Bloomberg.

• Brent FEB 24 up 0.2% at 83.07$/bbl
• WTI JAN 24 up 0.3% at 78.09$/bbl
• Gasoil DEC 23 up 1.2% at 830$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -5.21$/bbl
• Oil markets have this week seen some added support from disruption to oil loadings in the Black Sea and weakness in the US dollar amid dovish Fed commentary.
• Daily oil production from Kazakhstan remains disrupted due to lower reception at oil terminals with Black Sea loadings halted amid a storm in the region.
• EIA data yesterday showed a larger than expected crude stock build with production holding at record levels despite ongoing strong exports and a drop in imports. Cushing stocks unexpectedly built, and refinery utilisation also rose more than forecast.
  • Brent FEB 24-MAR 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.31$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.02$/bbl at 2.08$/bbl
• Crude time spreads are following the front month move higher while the options market remains skewed to the downside.
• Diesel cracks spreads fell in response to a big counter seasonal drop in the four week average implied demand below the previous five year range according to EIA data. Gasoline however continues to edge higher despite a demand dip on the week in line with the seasonal trend.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.1$/bbl at 16.36$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0$/bbl at 40.09$/bbl