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Crude Edges Lower as Soft China Data Offsets Middle East Risks

OIL

The oil market is edging lower after further soft data in China which is considered a key for global demand growth this year. Demand concern is limiting the upside from the risks of escalation in the Middle Eastern conflict and increasing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Focus this week is on events in the Middle East, OPEC+ ahead of the JMMC meeting tomorrow and central bank rate decisions.

    • Brent APR 24 down -0.6% at 82.03$/bbl
    • WTI MAR 24 down -0.6% at 77.39$/bbl
    • Gasoil FEB 24 down -0.5% at 843$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -4.93$/bbl
  • Manufacturing activity in China contracted for a fourth straight month in January according to an official factory survey.
  • Markets are waiting for the US response following the attack on its troops stationed in Jordan over the weekend. US President Biden said that he did not want a war with Iran and that he had decided how to respond without giving further details.
  • OPEC+ appears to be making a slow start to its new output cuts, according to Kpler. Russian output however was below target last week after halts at two ports during the week due to maintenance and weather disruption.
  • The US government will not renew the sanctions relief on Venezuela unless there is progress on allowing all presidential candidates to compete in this year’s election according to a US State Department Spokesperson.
    • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.38$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 2.62$/bbl
  • Time spreads have also pulled back from the highest since November seen on Jan 29 but the curve remains in backwardation supported by supply risks and Red Sea tanker diversions.
  • Gasoline front month crack spreads rebounded late yesterday after an initial move lower while diesel cracks were weaker on the day ahead of the updated US stocks data today. API data yesterday showed a small gasoline inventory build and distillates draw.
    • US gasoline crack down -0.5$/bbl at 18.1$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 38.56$/bbl
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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