Crude Edges Towards Upper End of Range Ahead of EIA Data

Crude is edging higher back towards the upper end of the range this year after gains yesterday with a weaker US dollar today adding to the ongoing support from geopolitical risks.

• Brent APR 24 up 0.4% at 83.35$/bbl
• WTI APR 24 up 0.4% at 78.25$/bbl
• Gasoil MAR 24 up 0.6% at 841.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.01$/bbl at -5.1$/bbl
• Demand concerns persist with China’s consumption outlook uncertain and the Fed minutes signalling that FOMC members are concerned regarding easing too soon.
• Crude curve backwardation strengthened further yesterday suggesting tight market conditions on Red Sea tanker diversions and with the risk of an OPEC+ cut extension into Q2 likely to weigh on global inventories. Crude time spreads are at the highest since October.
• API data last night however showed a bigger than expected build in US crude stocks ahead of the EIA weekly data later today.
  • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.96$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 up 0.04$/bbl at 3.3$/bbl
• Diesel cracks yesterday continued their pull back amid demand concerns, expectation of easing US refining outages, and rising Middle East refining capacity this year. US refinery utilisation was last week at the lowest since Dec2022. BP’s Whiting refinery is expected to return to full production in March while the TotalEnergies Port Arthur refining is also working to complete a restart.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.2$/bbl at 28.5$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 34.79$/bbl