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Crude Falls to Lowest Since mid January

OIL

Crude continues to trade lower on recession fears leading to lower global oil demand. The tightening by the US Fed is driving the strength in the US dollar and weakness in the oil markets.

    • Brent NOV 22 down -1.7% at 84.69$/bbl
    • WTI NOV 22 down -1.6% at 77.45$/bbl
    • Gasoil OCT 22 down -2.1% at 943$/mt
    • WTI-Brent up 0.14$/bbl at -7.24$/bbl
  • Front month Brent is trading at the lowest since mid January after gradually falling from a peak at 123$/bbl in June. Lower demand and crude prices could increase the chances of a reaction from OPEC. Last week Nigeria’s oil minister said the group may be “forced” to make additional production cuts if crude prices fall below current levels. After the last OPEC meeting Saudi Arabia said that OPEC will be attentive, pre-emptive and proactive in terms of supporting stability.
  • The easing in demand growth and current stable supply have pushed time spreads back down with the front Brent spread halving from 2.16$/bbl at the end of August. Upside price risks come from supply disruption with many OPEC member still struggling with underproduction.
    • Brent NOV 22-DEC 22 down -0.06$/bbl at 1.06$/bbl
    • Brent DEC 22-DEC 23 down -0.65$/bbl at 8.36$/bbl
  • A quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year has seen no disruption to US production or refining but tropical storm Ian is one to watch. The storm is heading into the Gulf of Mexico and expected to hit landfall along the Florida coastline.
  • Refined product cracks are relatively stable again this morning. Gasoline and diesel cracks have found more support than crude recently due to low stocks and refinery outages and despite low US demand data.
    • US 321 crack down -0.5$/bbl at 29.6$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 17.94$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.8$/bbl at 52.98$/bbl
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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